Bitcoin Holds $73,000 as Odds of December 50 bps Fed Rate Hike Increase

Bitcoin recently dipped below $73,000 as investors reassessed the path of monetary policy following an October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that exceeded forecasts. As market participants analyze the latest Bitcoin price trends, the probability of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December climbed from 0% to 13.6% on November 10. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase moved from 84% to 86.4%, according to a CME FedWatch snapshot reported by Barron's.

Bitcoin December 2025 Price Forecast and Fed Policy

The October headline CPI rose 0.4%, surpassing the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation hit 0.3% against a 0.2% expectation. This data met the threshold previously set by Governor Christopher Waller for considering a 50-basis-point adjustment. Despite the shift, the market still views a 25-basis-point hike as the dominant outcome, with the probability of no hike dropping to zero. Analysts note that the ratio favoring a 50-basis-point move over 25 would need to rise significantly before the larger increase becomes the primary expectation.

Several factors will shape the Federal Reserve's decision at the December 9 meeting. Key indicators include the October core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report due November 25 and the December 4 jobs report, which will provide insight into labor market strength. Additionally, public comments from voting members regarding faster tightening will be closely monitored. Recent market reactions to the inflation data included a rise in Treasury yields, a stronger dollar index, and a decline in gold prices.

Market expectations for a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike grew after October inflation data exceeded forecasts.

Technical analysis from Glassnode suggests that while recent leverage clearing may reduce the risk of forced-selling cascades, the market remains sensitive to volatility. The firm identified modeled long-liquidation bands between $73,000 and $76,000, as well as lower levels between $60,000 and $63,000. Farside Investors reported approximately $1.5 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs between November 2 and November 9, adding further pressure to the asset's price discovery.

Why it matters

The shift in interest rate expectations highlights the market's sensitivity to persistent inflation and potential Fed tightening. For investors, the possibility of higher rates for longer periods could impact global financial conditions and risk assets like Bitcoin. The evolving outlook reflects a broader struggle to balance economic growth with price stability as the Federal Reserve weighs its final decisions for the year.