Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Host Bets on US Public Health

Online prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are expanding their offerings to include wagers on US public health events, prompting serious warnings from experts. A recent sign appeared on a construction fence in the Brooklyn borough of New York City featuring the Polymarket logo and asking if any state would end vaccine markets. Polymarket joins Kalshi, which started offering health predictions over the summer, allowing users to bet on FDA drug approvals, CDC recommendations, and measles case counts.

Experts have raised concerns about the lack of regulation surrounding these platforms. Lia Nower, director of the Center for Gambling Studies at Rutgers University, noted that prediction markets operate through a regulatory loophole by positioning themselves as financial derivatives overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than traditional gambling sites. Several states have filed lawsuits against these companies, alleging they function as unregulated gambling operations.

Critics point out that these markets could influence drug trials, regulatory decisions, and vaccine policies. Matthew Eisenberg of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health warned that prediction markets reward leaks from individuals with nonpublic information. While Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever argued that clinical trial markets improve transparency by sharing scattered insights, experts emphasize that problem gambling is already a growing public health concern that largely sits outside consumer protection systems.

Why it matters

The expansion of prediction markets into public health raises urgent consumer protection and regulatory concerns. As these platforms operate outside traditional gambling rules and state taxes, they create risks of insider trading and unmonitored financial exposure for vulnerable populations.