Democrats Lead US Midterm Polls as Trump Adjusts Campaign Strategy

With only four days remaining before the US midterm elections, Democratic candidates are maintaining an advantage in nationwide surveys as both political parties execute their concluding push for votes. The race tightens amid shifting campaign strategies, including former President Donald Trump's decision to drop two in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa to instead conduct telephone events reaching almost 20 states.

Nationwide tracking by RealClearPolling shows Democrats ahead with 51.4 percent compared to 43.2 percent for Republicans, marking an 8.2 percentage point gap. Observers note that economic unease and presidential standing remain central issues. In Wisconsin, polling conducted in mid-October by the Marquette Law School showed Trump with a 37 percent approval rating versus 61 percent disapproval. Economic sentiment also appeared subdued, with merely 16 percent of respondents reporting improved personal finances compared to last year, while 42 percent indicated they were worse off and another 42 percent felt their situation remained unchanged.

Charles Franklin, who directs the Marquette Law School Poll, highlighted that higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters is providing their party an edge, stemming partly from dissatisfaction among Republicans regarding current conditions. In battleground areas like Arizona, escalating living costs have become a primary voter concern, with local retirees noting sharp spikes in supermarket bills. In other state contests, CNN polling shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas by 49 percent to 43 percent, while Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan by 49 percent to 42 percent. Still, Franklin noted that polling carries margins of error and tight contests could shift unexpectedly in either direction.

Democrats hold a national polling lead as campaign tactics shift days ahead of the midterm vote.

Complex Senate Contests

A potential post-election complication has emerged in Alaska, where a legal challenge could leave the Senate contest unresolved well past the November 3 deadline. The dispute centres around two contenders named Dan Sullivan: the sitting Republican senator and an independent candidate who shares the same name and is also a registered Republican. Trump has claimed the independent candidacy is an orchestrated effort to split Republican ballots, labelling it fraudulent. While the Justice Department has intervened legally, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola rejected the claims, characterizing them as a distraction from household affordability issues. Commentators warn that if Alaska determines the upper chamber's majority, Senate control might remain unknown for weeks.

Meanwhile, Trump campaigned in South Carolina on behalf of Republican senator Darline Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, who faces challenger Annie Andrews. Speaking in Rock Hill, Trump urged supporters to turn out and avoid complacency, framing the ballot as an extension of his own record and administration achievements.