SAF Successes in Sudan Kordofan Turn Tide Against RSF

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have gained control over several strategically important villages and localities in West Kordofan this week, shifting the war against the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its favour. On Friday, the Sudanese army took control of al-Khuwai, one of the main towns in West Kordofan and a strategically important site in the ongoing military campaign. This offensive, backed by allied Darfur forces, has successfully broken the RSF siege on al-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, and surrounding areas. The operations have also opened new supply routes in central and southwest Sudan, paving the way for further advances toward Babnusa and North Darfur.

While the RSF still holds al-Nuhud and parts of South Kordofan, its recent territorial losses could weaken its ability to coopt tribal groups. Analysts note that the paramilitary's shift from attack to defence may alter its military composition, which has heavily relied on rapid tribal support. As the SAF gains ground, informal coalitions and tribal alliances forged by the RSF are facing mounting pressure and defections. Furthermore, the army's growing air superiority, extensive drone use, and shifting ground tactics have significantly reduced the RSF chances of regaining lost territory in the region.

SAF territorial gains in Kordofan are shifting the momentum of Sudan's ongoing conflict.

The Humanitarian Toll and Darfur Concerns

The ongoing conflict between the SAF and RSF has resulted in one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, displacing millions and causing extensive casualties. Following military successes in Khartoum, fighting has increasingly concentrated on the provinces of Darfur and Kordofan. The United Nations has identified Kordofan as the epicentre of the conflict, where ongoing hostilities and infrastructure damage severely complicate aid delivery. Meanwhile, the RSF continues to consolidate control across Darfur, where civilians face severe threats amid ongoing violence and security deteriorations.

Why it matters

The shifting military balance in Kordofan alters the strategic landscape of Sudan's civil war, potentially transforming Darfur into the new epicentre of the conflict. These developments impact millions of displaced civilians and disrupt humanitarian operations across the region.