US Midterm Elections and What Ukraine Means for International Policy

The outcome of the upcoming US midterm elections will shape American policy for years and create global repercussions. Decisions made in Washington affect adversaries such as Iran as well as nations like Ukraine, which seeks additional support from the United States. While President Donald Trump holds substantial executive power, he does not govern alone, and the legislature plays a critical role in shaping laws and government spending.

Voters will decide the composition of both the House of Representatives and the Senate this Tuesday. These two chambers hold considerable influence over legislation, government funding, and serve as a check on the president and intelligence agencies. Although Trump's Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers, recent polls suggest Democrats could take control of at least the House and possibly the Senate, potentially shifting the direction of major foreign policy matters.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United States previously stood out as a reliable partner under the Biden administration. However, the situation changed abruptly under Trump, who reduced financial and military aid and suspended sanctions against Russia. If Democrats secure majorities in Congress, they could place increased support for Ukraine on the legislative agenda. Brandon Conradis of Bloomberg Government noted that Democrats criticize the administration's current approach and could push legislation to provide additional aid.

Congressional control changes could shift US foreign policy regarding Ukraine and international conflicts.

In addition to European security, congressional power dynamics may influence Middle Eastern conflicts. Trump launched a war against Iran alongside Israel without consulting Congress, violating constitutional requirements for a formal declaration of war. While Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution suggests Congress might not hold huge direct powers over the conflict, lawmakers could potentially prevent major escalation by refusing to fund it. Meanwhile, sharp cuts to global health and development aid projects, including the closure of USAID, could also face intense scrutiny and potential investigation if Democrats gain oversight power.

Why it matters

These midterm elections matter because a shift in congressional control could alter American power dynamics and impact global stability. While the presidency remains under Republican leadership and a complete reversal of foreign policy is unlikely, new majorities in Congress could change how the US approaches foreign aid, international conflicts, and oversight of executive decisions.