Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

Recent market data indicates that Bitcoin has successfully recovered its competitive stance against traditional equities. According to the latest figures from the onchain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street trading sessions over a rolling 90-session period. This marks a significant improvement for the cryptocurrency, which had previously endured a prolonged stretch where it lost more sessions than it won. Beyond the frequency of these sessions, Glassnode noted that the average gains per session for Bitcoin were slightly higher than those recorded for the S&P 500.

Understanding the bitcoin win rate

The recent shift in market dynamics has drawn renewed attention to the bitcoin win rate as investors analyze broader economic trends. Data from TradingView currently places the rolling 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 at 0.63. This positive correlation has become more pronounced since August, a period during which both crypto and traditional stocks experienced gains alongside the expansion of US Treasury debt buybacks.

Bitcoin has matched the S&P 500 in half of recent trading sessions as market optimism grows.

Market participants are also evaluating the impact of the US midterm elections on future performance. Analysis from the crypto asset manager Capriole Investments highlights that Democratic sweeps of Congress during Republican presidencies have historically correlated with strong returns for the S&P 500. Reviewing 26 midterm elections since 1922, the firm identified seven instances where Democrats secured both the House and Senate under a Republican president. In those specific cases, the S&P 500 saw an average gain of 10.7% over the following three months, with average returns climbing to 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after a year.

Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, remarked on the significance of these historical patterns in a post on X, noting that the recent election outcome is viewed as highly favorable for financial markets. As investors look toward future cycles, these historical benchmarks provide a framework for observing how both digital assets and traditional equities respond to shifting political and economic landscapes.

Why it matters

The convergence of digital asset performance and traditional stock market indicators suggests a period of heightened sensitivity to US political outcomes. For global investors, including those in India and South Asia, these trends highlight how US fiscal policy and election results can influence a wide range of asset classes simultaneously.

Understanding these correlations is essential for market participants monitoring the impact of macroeconomic shifts on their portfolios. As Bitcoin and the S&P 500 exhibit stronger ties, the performance of one increasingly provides context for the movement of the other in the global financial ecosystem.