Can US Midterm Vote Really Change Trump's Iran Policy?
As the upcoming US midterm elections place the Iran conflict at center stage, analysts debate whether legislative shifts can actually alter the administration's policies.
The US election this Tuesday is shaping up to be one of the most consequential midterm votes in modern US history, with Washington's relationship with Israel and its war on Iran right at the center of the political standoff. Many Democrats, including rising stars such as Ohio Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, are outspoken critics of the Iran conflict, calling it illegal and misguided. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump sought to downplay the effects of the war during the campaign, claiming last week that only one or two targets remained in Iran and that those could be settled quickly. However, he also noted that messages are still being exchanged, Tehran shows strong interest in a deal, and the US has plenty of time to address the crisis.
At the same time, reports indicate that the US and Israel are preparing to launch a new round of strikes on Iran just after the midterm election. Pro-war Republicans, such as Senator Ted Cruz, are pressuring the White House to deal firmly with the threat posed by Iran. Cruz stated online that he urged arming Iranian protesters to overthrow the regime. Behind the scenes, analysts warn that the Washington political elite may not be as divided on Iran as it appears, and even a resounding Democratic victory might not provide enough leverage over the Trump administration.
Former National Security Advisor John Bolton told DW that Democrats are likely to secure a majority in the House and possibly the Senate, which would grant them control over war funding. While Congress can allocate defense budgets or impose financial restrictions, Bolton pointed out that the president can veto such legislation, requiring a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override. US diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre adds that there is a deep bipartisan consensus between both major parties regarding their opposition to the Islamic Republic's political structure and their support for pressure on Tehran.
Congressional power to control war funding faces presidential vetoes and deep bipartisan consensus on Iran.
Tehran has confirmed ongoing indirect communication via Doha and Muscat while warning of a crushing response to any new strikes on underground sites. International security analyst Shahin Modarres noted that Tehran's strategy in dragging out peace talks, pressuring the Strait of Hormuz, and letting fuel prices weigh on voters aims to deny Trump a win before November. However, Modarres warns this strategy may backfire after the election when the administration no longer has reasons to delay its moves. Bolton believes Trump will decide on his next steps only after the political pressure lessens, citing potential actions against new nuclear sites like Kuh-e Kolang near Natanz.
Why it matters
The outcome of the US midterm vote and its subsequent legislative shifts could determine whether Congress manages to constrain executive war funding or if the executive branch proceeds with further military strikes. This standoff directly impacts global diplomatic stability, energy markets, and international security measures involving the Middle East.