Victorian Election 2026: Labor MPs Voice Alarm Over New Poll

A fresh opinion poll ahead of the upcoming state election has triggered serious concern and scepticism among Victorian Labor MPs, showing the ruling party trailing in third position. The DemosAU survey, published initially by the Herald Sun, indicates that Labor's primary vote has fallen sharply to 18 percent. This positions the party behind the Coalition on 33 percent and One Nation on 21 percent, while the Greens rose to 17 percent.

Ben Carroll declined to comment on the poll figures during a press conference in South Melbourne, stating his focus remains on working people and outlining alternative risks. Within Labor's campaign headquarters, however, officials are viewing the numbers as an outlier compared to other public polling that places their primary support in the twenties. Anonymous caucus members have criticized recent strategic focuses, such as crime announcements, arguing the approach has failed to improve political standing.

DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos defended the methodology, noting the survey involved 1,562 respondents with an effective sample of 818 and a 3.4 percent margin of error. If replicated on election night, Hasanakos suggested contests would primarily involve the Coalition and One Nation, potentially creating a clear majority for the Coalition due to preference flows.

New polling reveals Victorian Labor trailing in third place behind One Nation and the Coalition.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson emphasized her party's commitment to tougher crime laws, including proposed legislation named after Aidan Becker. Meanwhile, Pauline Hanson disputed recent media reports regarding her former campaign director, affirming he finished working with the party immediately following his sacking earlier this year.

Why it matters

The survey results indicate a significant shift in voter alignment that could alter the political landscape of the state, directly affecting the governing strategy of the incumbent administration and the positioning of all contesting political entities as the election approaches.